TNF: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
- mtcordin
- Nov 14, 2024
- 7 min read
We have what we hope is an amazing matchup tonight with the Washington Commanders visiting the Philadelphia Eagles. Of course it’s Thursday Night Football on Amazon, so literally anything can happen. TNF has shown itself, once again, to be a general sh*t-show – even though they boast one of the best broadcast crews tackling the game. Seriously, I’d love to see Andrew Wentworth as much as we see Gronk these days, (and let’s be honest, those insurance commercials make Gronk uber-cringe worthy. Listen dude, Sam Elliot ain’t your dad and that baby voice you’re using has got to go!)
But, I digress. Let’s see what the match-up tells us on paper.
Game Overview and Odds Movement
Tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles brings two dynamic offenses and tough defenses into focus. Notably, the odds have shifted in favor of Washington in recent days. Initially set as a +6 underdog, Washington’s line has moved to +3.5. Additionally, the Commanders' moneyline moved from +205 to +160, reflecting increased bettor confidence. The game’s over/under also saw adjustments, opening at 45.5 and settling at 48.5.
Washington Commanders Analysis
Offense
The Commanders rank among the top teams in offensive efficiency, placing 3rd in points per game (29.0) and 4th in yards per game (377.0). With a balanced approach, Washington’s rush play percentage (50.48%) is 5th in the league, supported by strong yardage per rush (4.9, ranked 7th) and top-tier rushing touchdowns per game (1.8, ranking 1st). Jayden Daniels, Washington’s quarterback, boasts impressive numbers, completing 68.7% of his passes with a 101.8 passer rating, and has thrown only two interceptions in 262 attempts.
Defense
Washington’s defense has areas of vulnerability, particularly in their ability to prevent touchdowns in the red zone, allowing opponents a red zone touchdown rate of 70% (30th in the league). While they rank 14th in overall yards allowed per game (324.9), their struggles on third down (23rd with a 42.11% conversion rate) could be exploited by the Eagles, who are efficient in high-pressure downs.
Key Injuries
The Commanders have a few notable injuries, with kicker Austin Seibert (hip) out, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) along with tackle Cornelius Lucas (ankle) also unavailable. These absences could influence Washington's offensive efficiency and special teams performance.
Philadelphia Eagles Analysis
Offense
Philadelphia’s offense ranks 7th in points per game (25.9) and 6th in total yards (373.9), demonstrating consistent productivity. Known for their powerful run game, the Eagles lead the league with a 55.01% rush play percentage, averaging 176.1 rushing yards per game (2nd in the NFL). Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a crucial dual-threat weapon, rushing for 378 yards and ten touchdowns while averaging 4.1 yards per carry.
Philadelphia’s passing attack, while less frequent, is efficient. Hurts boasts a 69.8% completion rate and averages 8.4 yards per attempt. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith lead the receiving corps, combining for high yards per catch, particularly Brown, who has 92.2 receiving yards per game.
Defense
Philadelphia’s defense excels across multiple metrics, ranking 2nd in both yards allowed per game (274.1) and yards per play allowed (4.8). Their run defense is especially stout, allowing just 100.7 rushing yards per game, 5th in the league. Additionally, they are 3rd in opponent red zone touchdown rate (42.31%) and have held teams to an impressive 17.9 points per game (5th).
Key Injuries
Philadelphia is dealing with several key questionable players: TE Dallas Goedert, WR DeVonta Smith, CB Darius Slay Jr., and LB Nakobe Dean. Should these players be inactive, Philadelphia might face challenges, particularly in pass coverage and offensive versatility.
Matchup Breakdown and Prediction
1. Running Game Dominance: Both teams rely heavily on their ground game. The Eagles' top-ranked rush play percentage against Washington’s struggling rush defense (28th in yards per rush allowed) could provide Philadelphia with control of the clock. Meanwhile, Washington’s own strong rushing game, led by Brian Robinson Jr. (65.9 rushing yards per game), could find success against Philadelphia’s stout but occasionally breachable run defense.
2. Passing Efficiency vs. Secondary Vulnerabilities: Philadelphia’s secondary is strong, allowing only 173.4 passing yards per game (3rd in the NFL), which could challenge Jayden Daniels. However, if DeVonta Smith and Goedert are out or limited, Washington’s pass rush could gain an edge, as the Eagles rank 30th in quarterback sack percentage allowed.
3. Red Zone Execution: The red zone presents a critical area where the Eagles have a significant edge. Their defense ranks 3rd in red zone touchdown rate allowed, which could stall Washington’s high-scoring offense. Conversely, the Commanders’ struggles in this area might enable Hurts and the Eagles to capitalize on short-field opportunities.
4. Third and Fourth Downs: Washington ranks highly on third down conversions (44.72%, 5th) and leads the league in fourth down conversions (91.67%). If Philadelphia’s defense, which ranks 13th in third down defense, cannot stop Washington in critical situations, the Commanders could sustain drives and keep the game close.
Final Prediction
Expect a close, high-scoring game given the recent line movements and injury statuses. Philadelphia’s home-field advantage and superior defensive efficiency may ultimately give them the edge, but Washington’s offense has the potential to keep pace if they capitalize on the Eagles' questionable players and exploit the red zone and passing game.
Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Washington 24.
PPR Fantasy Prediction
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels should offer a solid floor with his efficient passing, as he completes 68.7% of his passes and faces an Eagles defense that could be without key pass defenders like Darius Slay Jr. Daniels averages 214.7 passing yards per game, with a high likelihood of crossing 200 yards and potentially reaching 1-2 passing touchdowns. Given his minimal interception rate (0.69%), he’s likely to offer a safe if unspectacular score for managers in need of steady quarterback production.
Terry McLaurin is Washington’s top receiving threat, averaging 71.1 yards per game on 15.1 yards per catch. In a PPR format, he should be a reliable WR2 with WR1 upside if the game script forces Washington to air it out. Expect McLaurin to see 6-9 targets with a likely range of 5-7 receptions for 60-90 yards and the potential for a touchdown.
Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. both contribute in the receiving game, with Ekeler averaging 28.3 receiving yards per game. Robinson, the primary runner, could see a volume-based score around 12-15 PPR points if he racks up yardage in the rushing game against Philadelphia’s strong, but definitely not elite, run defense. However, he could struggle to reach his full upside if the Commanders fall behind early.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts is a high-floor, high-ceiling option with his dual-threat capability, averaging 219.6 passing yards per game alongside 42 rushing yards and frequently finding the end zone (10 rushing touchdowns this season). In PPR leagues, Hurts projects as a top-three option, especially given his involvement in short-yardage rushing plays. Expect a 20-30 point range depending on his passing volume and red zone usage.
A.J. Brown is primed to lead the Eagles’ receiving corps. With a robust average of 92.2 receiving yards per game and his ability to turn targets into big plays (19.8 yards per catch), Brown has slate breaking potential in PPR leagues. Expect 7-10 targets, with a likely 5-8 receptions for 80-100 yards and a very good chance to score.
DeVonta Smith, should be active and without issues, and contributes as a WR2, potentially adding 4-6 receptions for 50-70 yards with a red zone look or two, though his hamstring issue could cap his upside.
In the tight end spot, Dallas Goedert, who's been wearing a Q-tag on and off, offers a reliable PPR baseline and averages 54.3 receiving yards per game, making him a top-10 option this week with a range of 3-5 catches for 40-60 yards. However, his recent hamstring injury makes him a risky start without confirmation of his full participation.
In summary, for fantasy managers in PPR formats, the Eagles offer several high-floor, high-ceiling plays in Hurts and Brown, while the Commanders present reliable options like McLaurin and Daniels. Adjust lineups based on injury confirmations, but overall, this game’s scoring potential suggests safe floor plays with solid upside for both teams' primary players.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB
Projection: 17-21 PPR points
Breakdown: 200-250 passing yards (8-10 points), 1-2 passing touchdowns (4-8 points), 20-30 rushing yards (2-3 points), 0 turnovers. Daniels should deliver a safe PPR score as he tends to avoid turnovers and could add some bonus rushing yards.
Terry McLaurin, WR
Projection: 14-20 PPR points
Breakdown: 6-9 receptions (6-9 points), 70-90 receiving yards (7-9 points), 0-1 touchdown (0-6 points). McLaurin should see a healthy target share with a potential touchdown, especially if the Commanders lean on their passing game to keep pace.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB
Projection: 13-18 PPR points
Breakdown: 60-80 rushing yards (6-8 points), 2-3 receptions (2-3 points), 10-20 receiving yards (1-2 points), 0-1 rushing touchdown (0-6 points). Robinson’s production may be limited if the Commanders trail, but he could add value with red zone work if the game remains close.
Austin Ekeler, RB
Projection: 8-12 PPR points
Breakdown: 15-30 rushing yards (1.5-3 points), 3-5 receptions (3-5 points), 20-30 receiving yards (2-3 points), 0-1 touchdown (0-6 points). Ekeler’s versatility in the passing game raises his floor, and he has solid upside in PPR formats if he can break off a big play or score, his usage tonight will definitely hinge on game script and the true health of Robinson Jr.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts, QB
Projection: 25-30 PPR points
Breakdown: 200-240 passing yards (8-10 points), 1-2 passing touchdowns (4-8 points), 40-50 rushing yards (4-5 points), 1 rushing touchdown (6 points), 1 turnover (-2 points). Hurts' dual-threat capability makes him a top option, with significant scoring potential on both passing and rushing touchdowns.
A.J. Brown, WR
Projection: 18-25 PPR points
Breakdown: 6-9 receptions (6-9 points), 80-100 receiving yards (8-10 points), 0-1 touchdown (0-6 points). Brown’s big-play ability and high volume make him a strong WR1, especially with Philadelphia’s reliance on the passing game when needed.
DeVonta Smith, WR (if active)
Projection: 10-15 PPR points
Breakdown: 4-6 receptions (4-6 points), 50-70 receiving yards (5-7 points), 0-1 touchdown (0-6 points). Smith is more of a WR2 in this game, as his hamstring injury might limit his snap count or explosiveness, but he still offers solid mid-range PPR value.
Dallas Goedert, TE (if active)
Projection: 8-12 PPR points
Breakdown: 3-5 receptions (3-5 points), 40-60 receiving yards (4-6 points), 0-1 touchdown (0-6 points). Goedert’s PPR floor remains stable, though his recent hamstring issue makes him a riskier play. He could reach his ceiling if he’s fully active, especially in the red zone.
These projections are based on each player’s role, matchup stats, and recent trends. Be sure to monitor player injury updates before locking in your final lineup. In fantasy life we’re looking for points, so let’s hope for that shootout potential to come to fruition. However, it’s important to note, that this game could start slow, and move fast as the clock will be running due to the possibility of heavy run volume on both sides of the matchup.
Also, never forget, the Eagles will be stopped on the 1-yard line an abnormal amount of time, so expect Barkley’s TD opportunities to be vultured by Hurts and the tush-push masters.
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