NFL Week 12: WTF Just Happened

By Michael Thomas

Needless to say, I didn’t profit this week (not that this is unusual). I probably ended up breaking even when all was said and done—definitely something I should track better. Then again, this site isn’t for the professional gambler or full-time daily fantasy player. We’re here to see how long we can make a deposit last.

Winning money in DFS is hard. Landing in a top spot? Even harder. This week continued the trend of not winning anything worth talking about, but it’s what happened that left me with my mouth open. I have a feeling the pros probably did well this weekend—this seems like the type of weekend they profit on.

When sh*t goes sideways, major things leave you scratching your head by the end of Monday Night Football. Here are my five biggest head-scratchers:

5. Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts: 24–6

The Lions only putting up 24 points on the Colts was a head-scratcher. The Colts allowed a typical amount of rushing yards for the game (137), but considering it was Gibbs and Monty, I would’ve bet on the over by at least 50. All of their TDs were scored on the ground, which gave both backs a decent day—the edge going to Gibbs (24.9 DK/$7300).

What was infuriating was the fact that everyone on the Colts decided to put a snowflake next to their name, allowing Detroit’s offense to basically mail it in. I didn’t have much from this game, just Gibbs in a couple of spots. Thank goodness I dodged this as a stack spot.

There may not be metaphorical wins in DFS, but when you learn how to stay away from a team that “should” do something, you put it in the win column.

4. Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders: 34–26

WTF, man. Dallas has been trash on both sides of the ball, but especially against the run. However, starting RB Brian Robinson left with an ankle injury, and Ekeler was concussed (again). Some of these guys need airbags on their helmets. Daniels did his best with 74 yards and a rushing TD, but the defense? They didn’t show up (everyone has injuries—no excuses).

Cooper “Gold” Rush was 24/32, took only one sack, and tossed two TDs for a 117.6 QB rating. Maybe that’s because the game plan was “toss it to freaking Ceedee Lamb”—which should always be the game plan. (10 rec/12 targets, 67 yards, 0 TDs, 16.8 DK/$7300).

Of course, Luke Schoonmaker (boat maker?) and Jalen Tolbert caught TDs—definitely had that on my BINGO card (sorry, Jamie Erdahl). The real play in this game was the Dallas DST (22 DK/$2400). Because we all saw that coming; Oh, the irony. I had some pieces from this game, but both were running backs who left me out in the cold.

In DFS, a “smash spot” is often a great way to gain leverage by staying away—unless you’re me. Then you go in when you should stay away, and stay away when you should go in. Kinda mirrors my poker game.

3. Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 32–27

Clearly Houston is not the belle of the ball anymore . However, how in Hades do the Texans lose to the Titans? At home? Titans quarterback Will Levis threw a pivotal 70-yard touchdown pass to Chig Okonkwo in the fourth quarter, contributing to his total of 278 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Running back Tony Pollard rushed for 119 yards and a touchdown, bolstering the Titans' offensive efforts.

Of course there are the Texans' Missed Opportunities. The Texans incurred 11 penalties across offense, defense, and special teams, significantly hindering their performance. Notably, a missed 28-yard field goal by Ka'imi Fairbairn and a safety resulting from a sack on quarterback C.J. Stroud by Harold Landry were critical setbacks.

Will Levis, as I said in a previous post is not afraid to toss the ball around the field, and today he hit his guys instead of the opposition. Tony Pollard has been solid all year, but I expect far better from the Texans. And on the opposite side of the coin, where the absolute hell was Joe Mixon? I hope they put out an APB for him. Now the Titans are a push-over defense, but they are by no means elite. They held Houston to 40 yards rushing. You know who I had the most exposure to? Yeah, Mixon. I was pretty much all in on him (and one other back, that made the WTF list today as well.) Joe Mixon rushed 14 times for 22 yards, 22 fucking yards. Awful. Just awful. Stroud is definitely in a Sophomore slump, and this team is one and done if they make the playoffs.

2. Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers: 30–27

KC got the win again. Nice job guys. Pat Mahomes must have a lucky rabbits foot stuck up his derriere - 60 yards on the ground, c’mon man.

You can guarantee if you fade Kelce, he will go off, and if you roster Kelce, Noah Gray will catch 4 passes for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns. DFS is all about asking “what if.” What if Kelce doesn’t hit, who will it be? I was pretty high on Hunt as was everyone else (somebody has to be a fish.) Noah Gray will be popular again this week, on a Black Friday "island game" no less, and you will be confused on what to do. His salary will be up, and as a DFS season progresses you have to ignore the story of last week, and tell the story of this week. Trends are a great opportunity to identify when to get off and on a player. So I will certainly post if I'm going to play Gray. So you don't.

Also, Carolina needs to keep using Bryce Young in this fashion. He most likely won’t ever justify the price they paid for him, but it doesn’t mean he has to be cast aside for the Red Rocket or any other Joe Flacco wanna-be. Carolina pushing KC says less about Carolina and far more about KC. There are quite a few unanswered questions about this years version of the Chiefs.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 6–16

There was a time in my life as a chef that my temper may have gotten the best of me (on more than one occasion,) and I may or may have not taken a sheet pan to a prep table until it was more art than functioning bake sheet. This game had me reaching for the sheet pan.

The Seahawks managed just 285 total yards, with Geno Smith completing 22 of 31 passes for 254 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Kenneth Walker III added 55 yards on 18 carries, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba stood out with six catches for 98 yards and the team’s only receiving touchdown.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals actually outgained Seattle with 298 total yards, thanks to Kyler Murray throwing for 285 yards on 24 of 37 attempts, though he also tossed an interception. Trey McBride had a monster game with 12 catches for 133 yards, but the Cardinals’ rushing attack was a disaster, totaling just 49 yards. James Conner was held to a pathetic eight yards on seven carries, leaving everyone wondering what the game plan was. This game was a masterclass in missed opportunities and underwhelming offensive execution. I sent texts to my partner here at The Prep Kitchen and told him Conner was my favorite back of the slate. So bad. So very Bad.

Final Thoughts

One of the biggest takeaways of Week 12 for new players, and a crappy player like me, is that nothing is certain. It’s very easy to say that player X is great at Y, but this is a week-to-week game, and DFS is not really about players, but rather about solving a probability problem using players. Everyone has access to the stats of "what happened." One of the reasons to use stats is to find where all of the “must plays” or “smash spots” are, and then determining if you can win without it if it hits.

Nothing about DFS is simple. Except losing money - that's super simple. Occasionally guys who pick their favorite players win some cash, but it really is a game of strategy or probability, and of a heck of a lot of luck. I find myself saying WTF more and more as the weeks go on, because I let previous results, inform current decisions. This is a net loss strategery. You must have a short memory for your losing.

I have yet to find my Zen in DFS. So, I still occasionally pick up the metal pan and bash it against the stove.