Analysis: WR Target Trends

I have no interest in breaking down all the WR target shares for week 12 of the NFL. I've got a work project that's biting at my butt, at least one, (probably two,) baskets of laundry that need to be done, and I'm brainstorming some ideas to bring to our family Thanksgiving dinner. So, the plan is to focus on a few players that may have upside, are pretty cheap, and definitely are trending in the right direction.

1. Rome Odunze (CHI) $4,800 (DK)

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings

• DFS Points Allowed: 39.3

  (Very favorable)

• Reception Yards Rank: 29th

• Reception TD Rank: 23rd

• Receptions Rank: 31st

• DK Rank: 29th

Analysis: The Vikings struggle against wide receivers, ranking near the bottom in yards and receptions allowed. Odunze, coming off a 40% target share in Week 11. Unfortunately, he plays on the Bears and I've committed to not playing a Bears player for the rest of the season.

Recommendation: Odunze has a meager 34 receptions on a strong 60 targets. He can't help it if his QB is running around like all Bears QBs do. His ADOT of 14.02 gives him a high risk reward as it's 3rd deepest among wide receivers with 30 or more catches. I'll do everyone a favor and not roster him so he goes off for you.

2. Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) $5,300 (DK)

Matchup: Detroit Lions

• DFS Points Allowed: 38.7

• Reception Yards Rank: 32nd

• Reception TD Rank: 4th (stingy)

• Receptions Rank: 32nd

• DK Rank: 28th

Analysis: Detroit excels in red-zone defense, ranking 4th in limiting receiving touchdowns, but they allow the most receptions and yards. Pittman’s role as the Colts' primary receiver makes him a strong candidate for high volume, even if touchdown opportunities are limited.

Recommendation: A reliable option in all formats, with a high floor and potential for big yardage totals. If points do go up in this game, like the books say they will (which take it or leave it as you see fit,) pairing Pittman and Richardson isn't a bad idea as Richardson is just as likely as any of his running backs to go in for the TD on the ground.

Note: This game if you're playing multi-entry seems like a place you have to find yourself in some form, however, there are paths to this game being a bit of a dud too. We know DET has a strong run D, but if Indy can find a way to run, slow the game down, we know that DET likes to run as well - this game could have a quick game clock, and limit the number of offensive drives available. Detroit could also score over 42 points just as easy - so roll them dice! Papa needs new shoes!

3. Odell Beckham Jr. (MIA) $3,300 (DK)

Matchup: New England Patriots

• DFS Points Allowed: 34.3

• Reception Yards Rank: 24th

• Reception TD Rank: 19th

• Receptions Rank: 23rd

• DK Rank: 22nd

Analysis: Beckham’s recent target share increase suggests a growing role in Miami’s offense. Clearly Waddle has gone AWOL this season. It's been a car crash for the Dolphins so far this year.

Recommendation: The Patriots’ defense is decent, disciplined and capable of containing receivers, making this a challenging matchup. A high-risk, moderate-reward option in tournaments. It's far more interesting that somehow OBJ has found some playing time in the NFL.

4. Kendrick Bourne (NE) $3,600 (DK)

Matchup: Miami Dolphins

• DFS Points Allowed: 26.9 (elite)

• Reception Yards Rank: 7th

• Reception TD Rank: 2nd

• Receptions Rank: 8th

• DK Rank: 4th

Analysis: Miami is one of the most formidable defenses against wide receivers. So why is he on this list? His target share has surged to 27% over the last three weeks, reflecting a significant increase in involvement. This jump highlights a shift in New England’s offensive strategy - meaning they have one with Drake Maye now.

Recommendation: A flyer play really, but at $3600 on DK he's in play and is a direct pivot off the much talked about Boutte.

5. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) $4,100 (DK)

Matchup: Houston Texans

• DFS Points Allowed: 33.9

• Reception Yards Rank: 20th

• Reception TD Rank: 18th

• Receptions Rank: 21st

• DK Rank: 19th

Analysis: Houston’s defense focuses heavily on stopping primary receivers, which could allow Westbrook-Ikhine, the Titans’ WR2, to find soft spots in coverage. His target share has jumped to 32% with departure of Hopkins to KC, and he will keep finding a way into my lineups. The Titans stink, but they'll probably be playing from behind, making this a great pass happy offense. Will Levis isn't afraid to toss the ball to anybody, not even the other team, so let'er fly Will, and lets get over 15 points NWI.

Recommendation: A (not so) sneaky tournament play with sleeper potential if we're talking about him.