ANALYSIS: VIKINGS AT RAMS

Happy Thursday Degenerates, and welcome to The DFS Prep Kitchen! If you're anything like us, you started "jonesing" for Thursday on Monday at about half-time of the Cardinals-Chargers game.

First, let me preface that this is the first analysis for The DFS Kitchen – the brainchild, and I use brain loosely, of two chefs who love sports, realized that being an actual head chef was just a bit more bonkers than anything else you can do for money, and have moved on to new but still industry-related careers that allow us to enjoy our lives again, have relationships with our family, generally not be assholes, bet props, and play DFS. But, I digress, back to the task at hand – Vikings (5-1) at Rams (2-4.)

WHAT WE KNOW

The Vikings defense has been strong, particularly against the run. Their defensive pass statistics are a bit skewed because teams have had to resort to pass-heavy plans of attack. Clearly, at 5-1, they're doing something right; however, they're not invincible. The Detroit Lions, who are looking more and more like the cream of the NFL crop (which when you're my age is insane to say), beat the Vikings last week in a close, and extremely enjoyable game to watch from a fan position – I did not roster the correct DET players, so from a DFS standpoint it sucked. The interesting part of that game was the Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1) stat line:

• 15 rushes, 116 yards, 2 TDs

• 4 targets, 4 receptions, 44 yards

• 35.0 DraftKings points (just 0.44 points behind Week 7 top scorer Lamar Jackson)

  
  

BIG PICTURE: THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS OFFENSE AND DEFENSE

Offensive Overview:

• Strong scoring offense with 28.0 points per game (#6)

• Highly efficient passing attack:

  • 8.4 yards per pass (#4)

  • 66.67% completion rate (#10)

  • Low volume with only 27.5 passes per game (#30)

• Balanced run game:

  • 46.97% rush play rate (#13)

  • Middle-of-pack efficiency at 4.4 yards per rush (#17)

  • Low rushing TD production at 0.7 per game (#24)

• Excellent red-zone efficiency at 68.75% TD rate (#6)

• Perfect field goal conversion rate (100%, #1)

• Issues with protection - 10.33% sack rate (#30)

Defensive Strengths:

• Strong scoring defense allowing just 17.8 points per game (#6)

• Elite run defense:

  • Only 80.0 rush yards allowed per game (#2)

  • 4.0 yards per rush allowed (#5)

  • Teams rarely run against them (30.08% opponent rush rate, #1)

• Exceptional at creating turnovers:

  • 2.3 takeaways per game (#2)

  • League-leading 4.31% interception rate (#1)

• Strong on fourth down (28.57% opponent conversion rate, #3)

Vulnerabilities:

• Pass defense seeing heavy volume:

  • Facing 42.5 passes per game (#32)

  • Allowing 260.3 pass yards per game (#30)

Game Script Implications:

• Positive turnover margin (+0.7 per game, #7)

• Balanced time of possession (48.86%)

• Above-average penalty rate (7.5 per game, #24)

From a DFS Perspective:

1. Vikings passing game offers efficiency but may lack volume (JJ to the house!)

2. Running backs facing Vikings should be downgraded (Maybe not this week)

3. Pass-heavy teams facing Vikings could provide volume-based value

4. Vikings offensive players are strong red-zone performers

5. Defense/Special Teams could be valuable due to high turnover rate

   
   

BIG PICTURE: THE LOS ANGELES RAMS OFFENSE AND DEFENSE

The Rams (2-4) as a team are like a well-worn pair of jeans. There is so much to like about them, but the holes and ripping crotch make them ready to be replaced. The Rams have been hit hard by this season's NFL Injury Monster (I'm done calling it the "injury bug.") Who the Rams are, is still very much left to be seen. They are getting some key pieces slowly back. Kupp is expected back this week, and there's an outside chance that Puka gives it a go as well. A few caveats about the stats – Kyren Williams is matchup-proof, so always feel free to play – his pass-catching ability makes him elite even if he's currently struggling at 3.8 yards per attempt. He's got 8 touchdowns, (if you don't play him you are saying that you think the Rams DK points come from somewhere else - but who?)

Offensive Overview:

• Below-average scoring offense, generating 19.0 points per game (#23 in NFL)

• Moderate passing tendency (58.86% pass play rate, #10)

• Decent passing efficiency with 66.33% completion rate (#11)

• Struggling run game averaging just 4.0 yards per rush (#27)

• Good at protecting the ball with 1.2 giveaways per game (#13)

• Very disciplined team with only 5.0 penalties per game (#3)

Defensive Vulnerabilities:

• Struggling defense allowing 25.7 points per game (#25)

• Major rushing defense issues:

  • Allowing 151.7 rush yards per game (#30)

  • Teams running frequently against them (51.20% opponent rush rate, #30)

  • Giving up 4.7 yards per rush (#25)

• Pass defense also struggling:

  • Allowing 7.9 yards per pass (#27)

  • Below-average pass rush with 6.01% sack rate (#23)

Game Script Implications:

• Often playing from behind based on points allowed

• Time of possession slightly favors opponents (51.53%)

• Red-zone scoring efficiency is poor at 47.83% (#25)

• Decent third-down conversion rate at 37.50% (#20)

From a DFS Perspective:

1. Running backs facing the Rams are strong plays

2. The Rams' passing game could offer value due to likely negative game scripts

   
   

THE MATCHUP: VIKINGS AT RAMS

Key Dynamics:

• Vikings are highly efficient scoring offense (28.0 PPG) vs. Rams struggling defense (25.7 PPG allowed)

• Rams will likely need to pass more due to their defense's vulnerabilities

• Vikings defense forces league-leading interception rate but Rams protect the ball well

• Vikings rarely face the run but Rams struggle to run anyway

• Both teams give up significant passing yards

Game Script Projection:

Most likely scenario has Vikings playing from ahead, forcing Rams into more passing situations. The Rams' low penalty rate could help keep drives alive against a Vikings defense that excels at creating turnovers.

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATIONS

Strong CPT Plays:

1. Vikings WRs - Rams allowing 7.9 yards per pass, Vikings getting 8.4 yards per pass

2. Vikings QB - High efficiency + Rams' weak pass defense = ceiling game potential

3. Rams WRs - Negative game script likely, Vikings allowing heavy pass volume

Contrarian CPT Options:

• Rams RB - Very low ownership expected but Vikings elite run defense makes this purely contrarian

• Vikings DST - Rams taking 7.87% sacks + Vikings' high turnover rate = sneaky ceiling

• Secondary Vikings pass-catchers - Strong leverage against popular plays

  
  

FLEX CONSIDERATIONS

Core Plays:

• Vikings QB + at least 2 pass-catchers (based on game theory data showing QB captain success with multiple pass-game correlations)

• At least one Rams WR (garbage time/negative script potential)

• Consider Vikings DST in non-captain builds

Game Theory Notes:

• Avoid multiple Rams RBs - poor matchup + negative correlation

• Don't stack Vikings RB with their DST unless going "full onslaught."

• Limit exposure to kickers despite decent projections

  
  

LEVERAGE OPPORTUNITY

• Secondary Vikings & Rams weapons

• Game script contrarian builds (Rams positive scripts)

• Unique correlations leveraging garbage time

• Target unique Captain choices (low probability, but not unheard of in mass entry

• Leave salary on the table

• Include at least one low-owned player (<5%)

• Consider non-traditional correlations for unique builds

• Limit kicker/DST exposure to 2 combined per lineup in most circumstances

  
  

Disclaimer

The DFS Prep Kitchen isn't going to tell you who to play, we're not that good, and we don't have a magic 8 ball. DFS is not just about the players, it's about ownership, lineup construction and game theory. Our friends at One Week Season, (they don't know we are friends,) have some great information when it comes to ownership and sims - that's just not our focus right now. We definitely believe in their philosophy of playing DFS - providing picks is not sustainable, doesn't teach anything, and leaves you open for unnecessary judgement. We'll provide information for a game, some insight that you hopefully find helpful, and then let you build and learn. OWS does not pay us, does not give us anything in return for mentioning them - they literally do not know we exist.

The fact is, we all have access to the data. It's taken this guy many years to even start to understand that data is only one piece to the puzzle, and it's still hard to not just see the players, their stats, and say this all fits, I should win.

There is an extreme amount of volatility in sports betting, and the optimal or most obvious game script and construction rarely plays. Being uncomfortable with a lineup build can sometimes indicate you're on the right path, and sometimes it just means you have a shitty build. Remember, keep track of your builds/exposures, analyze what worked, what didn't, and always be asking why.

Oh yea, we're gonna have recipes that make your losses hurt less - and you will lose, a lot, in your way to getting better. We're just looking to keep our bankrolls stable, have some fun, provide some analysis, and have a hobby that keeps us near to our families and eat good food. I mean, that's really what makes a good a Sunday.